Untangling the Inequitable Effects of Heat and Air Pollution on Human Health
By Ken Kingery
8/5/26Research13 min read
Duke Engineering researchers are working with local Durham households to study the compounding effects of heat and air pollution to help people worldwide.
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Untangling the Inequitable Effects of Heat and Air Pollution on Human Health
Your forehead is sweaty, knees weak, your heart’s pounding already. Balance unsteady. You’re nervous…that you might be having a heart attack.
But it’s over 100 degrees outside and you’ve been doing yard work in the sun for nearly an hour. Maybe it’s the onset of heat stroke.
Then again, the herbicide you just sprayed to kill off the creeping crabgrass came with a warning to wear a mask—a warning you ignored. It could be the chemicals getting to your head.
Durham, North Carolina gets pretty hot over the summer. A new research project will investigate how heat and air quality impacts people’s health across the city.
Heat and toxic fumes can cause a lot of the same symptoms of major health emergencies. But it doesn’t stop at extreme events like these three reasons to visit the emergency room. Over long periods of time, exposure to elevated (but tolerable) levels of both heat and air pollution can lead to higher risks of developing a wide range of health problems.
The similarities don’t stop there. Around the globe, people living in so-called urban heat islands, where temperatures can soar well above nearby neighborhoods, are also more likely to live in areas with poorer air quality. Think of rows of houses next to industrial parks where all the trees have been cut down and smokestacks constantly belch fumes into the atmosphere.
When you can start to use data to not only show how big of a problem these issues are together, but to start offering solutions on both a city scale and an individual level, that’s when I start to get excited.
David CarlsonYoh Family Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering
It stands to reason that these issues could compound one another’s health risks. Studying heat and air quality, however, are complex questions in and of themselves. Putting the two together is a daunting task.
But it’s a task being taken up by a research team at Duke Engineering, and they’re starting to attack the seemingly intractable problem right here in Durham.
Starting this year, the longtime dynamic research duo of Mike Bergin and David Carlson, both professors of civil and environmental engineering at Duke, are working with residents of a dozen homes across Durham. By providing low-cost air quality monitors, household weather stations and health-tracking Oura rings, they hope to begin laying the groundwork for information that could help millions.
“Both issues of heat islands and pollution levels tend to be the worst in the poorest areas of a city,” said Carlson. “When you can start to use data to not only show how big of a problem these issues are together, but to start offering solutions on both a city scale and an individual level, that’s when I start to get excited.”
Postdoctoral researcher Danielle Wagner and community partner Gian Carlos Carmona, who works with El Futuro Greenspace and Community Engagement, demonstrate instruments used in a new pilot research program looking at how heat and air quality combine to affect people’s health across Durham, North Carolina.
Shanghai Origins
This ambitious research project can be traced all the way back to 2017. For several months, Bergin, Jim Zhang, professor of global and environmental health at Duke, and a host of colleagues from multiple international institutions monitored the indoor air quality of the homes of a few dozen asthmatic children in Shanghai, China. Armed with commercial air filters and inexpensive DIY sensors, the team tried to determine if in-home filters could improve the short-term health of these children constantly breathing some of the most polluted air on Earth.
Researchers were not sure if a single air filter placed in the bedroom of a child could impact their health given the relatively small amount of time spent there, but the results were clear. Not only did air filters improve the children’s health, they did so after only two weeks of use. The results also suggested that consistent use could not only help alleviate flare-ups, but potentially prevent them altogether.
The results really showed that, when done properly, indoor air filtration can have huge health benefits, in this case for asthmatic children. Even more important is that indoor air filtration is relatively straight-forward and readily available in many countries for those who can afford it.
Mike BerginProfessor of Civil and Environmental Engineering
According to Bergin, the relatively small study sparked dozens of impactful papers on the chemical composition of particulate matter and volatile organic compounds (VOC’s) that people in the study were exposed to. It also helped reveal the sources of air pollutants, relationships between exposures and activities of the participants, and the development of novel biomarker approaches to assess health impacts.
That success led to a multimillion-dollar partnership between Duke and Underwriters Laboratory to assess the impact of air pollution, including wildfires, and heat on human health. Wildfires commonly produce PM2.5 particles, which have a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers—about three percent of the diameter of a human hair—and have been shown to have a dramatic effect on human health because of their ability to travel deep into the lungs.
Listen to Mike Bergin talk about his experiences building and deploying low-cost air quality sensors across the globe.
While Bergin’s expertise has long been in the engineering of low-cost, DIY air-quality sensors that can be distributed at scale, Carlson has added the secret sauce when it comes to data analysis and AI. Partnering together on the project, the two have been able to show that, for example, across Durham there can be a huge difference (almost 10 degrees F) in temperatures on the hottest days. Also, the makeup of indoor air pollutants varies greatly across town. They are currently trying to figure out how the combination impacts people’s mental and physical health.
But that’s not the only time the two have teamed up.
A Legacy of Sensing and Data Crunching
Bergin first came to Duke in 2015 after a long stint on the faculty of Georgia Tech. Carlson began his tenure as Duke faculty just two years later in 2017, returning to the school where he earned both his undergraduate and doctoral degrees over the span of nearly a decade.
It didn’t take long for the two to begin working together. Their first coauthored paper was published in 2018, and they have published many more since.
The most common theme of their collaboration has been sensing and data analytics. For example, they have developed techniques to use satellite imagery to accurately measure air pollution on any given day anywhere in the world or to spot sources of concentrated emissions that would otherwise remain hidden. They’re also using similar approaches to spot dangerous algal blooms in North Carolina’s coastal waters to warn local residents. But the most relevant work to their new project deals with on-the-ground sensors.
The researchers hypothesized that the poorest, hottest areas of a city don’t have nearly as many of these personal weather stations — if they even have any at all. To address this problem, there are two possible solutions: either install more weather stations or figure out a way to correct for the lack of data.
Statistics to the rescue.
Extreme heat also leads to poor air quality, and the resulting impacts on respiratory and cardiovascular health should be monitored for the benefit of all.
Marilyn BlackFormer Vice President and Senior Technical Advisor, Chemical Insights Research Institute, Underwriter’s Laboratory (UL) Research Institutes
The group pulled four years of data for the entire state of North Carolina from Weather Underground’s servers. They then mapped out where those stations are set up and compared their numbers to each area’s median income. Unsurprisingly, there was a strong correlation between income and data, with more stations being set up in areas with higher median incomes. The researchers then did some statistical gymnastics and applied that same correlation to their trove of temperature data.
“This was a clever trick that Zach thought of to generate more accurate heat readings,” said Carlson. “But then there was the question of whether or not this correction actually creates more realistic heat maps or not.”
To validate their approach, the researchers turned to the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS). In 2021, the federal organization chose 15 locations for their NIHHIS-CAPA HeatWatch Campaign, where large groups of scientists and community volunteers took multiple heat and humidity readings throughout a single day across entire cities. Fortunately, both Raleigh and Durham were part of the project.
A research study from the laboratories of Mike Bergin and David Carlson showed just how much weather stations were underestimating the heat in certain urban areas due to a lack of data.
The team took Weather Underground’s readings for Durham on that same 2021 day and applied their statistical correction across the city. They found that their results across the entire city — and, most importantly, in the areas with few or no personal weather station data — were much closer to the HeatWatch campaign’s data.
These results, combined with their long history of air quality research and results, formed the first kernel of an idea.
“Extreme heat also leads to poor air quality, and the resulting impacts on respiratory and cardiovascular health should be monitored for the benefit of all,” said Marilyn Black, former vice president and senior technical advisor for the Chemical Insights Research Institute of the Underwriter’s Laboratory (UL) Research Institutes, who has been a collaborator and coauthor on many of these same papers. “This is especially true for the vulnerable in urban areas such as children and those who are economically disadvantaged.”
First Durham, Then the World
All of this work has now come to a head. Years of first-hand experience seeing what air pollution can do to vulnerable populations and how big of an impact an in-home air filter can make. Multiple papers showing that heat islands in urban areas are an underappreciated and under-accounted problem. Decades of experience building low-cost sensors for wide-scale deployment and analyzing the resulting data. A longstanding partnership with UL, a company with the resources and convictions to help.
But even the most ambitious projects have to start somewhere. Why not Durham?
Bergin, Carlson and Danielle Wagner, a postdoctoral researcher at Duke, have recruited over a dozen homes in Durham to begin their quest. Working from the ground up, they have spread the word at the South Durham Farmer’s Market, showed up at local environmental action groups, and reached out through the Keep Durham Beautiful listserv. They have also worked with local partners Clean AIRE NC and the El Futuro Greenspace team to gain insights and perspectives for these efforts.
“Bringing awareness to all the heat-related issues that we have in our community is something that’s very important—not only for El Futuro, but for the broader Latino community in Durham,” said Gian Carlos Carmona, who works with El Futuro Greenspace and Community Engagement. “Many people are greatly affected by the issues we’re experiencing this summer and not always able to manage them.”
The result of all this work and recruitment is the Hot Durham Project (short for Distributed Urban Residential Air Quality and Heat Monitoring). Each participating home had a reliable weather station installed in their yard to keep tabs on the heat and humidity levels. They have also had low-cost commercial air quality monitors installed. Last but not least, each participant has been given an Oura ring to track biometrics like heart rate, sleep, activity levels and other indicators of how heat and air pollution might be impacting their lives.
The hope is to find overlaps between the effects of heat and air quality, like patterns of when it’s hotter at night and people are getting less sleep quality or their heart rate variability is not as healthy as usual.
Danielle WagnerPostdoctoral Associate in Duke Civil and Environmental Engineering
“We’ve tried to space the households all across the city so that we’re not just getting places near Duke, which is cooler than some parts because of all the trees on campus,” Wagner said. “The hope is to find overlaps between the effects of heat and air quality, like patterns of when it’s hotter at night and people are getting less sleep quality or their heart rate variability is not as healthy as usual.”
There’s a good chance they’ll succeed. Already they have found differences of single-day highs between participating households as large as 12 degrees Farenheit. Just imagine for a moment how different 100 degrees outside feels compared to 88 degrees. Carbon dioxide levels have also been found over three times higher at one home than another on the same summer day, indicating that improving cooling by closing up homes can often lead to higher indoor air pollution levels.
Perhaps the best part of taking the time to install all these sensors is that the data can be easily pulled without having to interrupt the residents’ lives again. Simple coding allows the team to collect the data remotely and incorporate it into a dashboard built by Alain Soto, an undergraduate student, where it can be easily viewed and integrated into models.
Danielle Wagner and Gian Carlos Carmona conduct weather and air quality outreach in the El Futuro greenspace in Durham. Together, they are bridging education with research outcomes related to how heat and air pollution vary across different environments.
With all of these tools in hand, the team hopes to go well beyond simply showing how big of an impact the combination of heat and air pollution can have on people’s lives. Thanks to data analysis led by Lucy Gagnon, a PhD student, results can reveal specific volatile compounds found across Durham as well as each household’s emission sources, whether that be burning candles and incense, cleaning with intense chemicals, or fermenting cider in their living rooms.
In a long-term study such as this, participants being able to see their own environmental data in real-time through their own dashboards is rare. To help make sense of it all, Anna Clauer, a graduate student, worked with Clean AIRE NC, UL Research Institute’s Chemical Insights, and the Museum of Life and Sciences to create individualized reports explaining their household emissions and heating and cooling profiles along with strategies and local resources available for mitigating these exposures.
“As just one example, if you don’t have proper ventilation when cooking from something like a window or a stove hood, that can drastically change your exposure levels, not just to heat but to air pollutants,” Wagner said. “When people know what to avoid, they can figure out how to minimize their risks.”
The Hot Durham Project team hopes that all of these resources will help keep participants engaged for the long haul.
“The biggest challenge to a project like this is finding people who are committed for the long term, beyond the initial excitement of getting started,” said Carlos. “I feel like that’s something we’ve found working alongside the group that we have here at El Futuro. We want to bring resources to the people who need them, and that starts with educating people about these issues.”
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